Monday, July 19, 2010

Skills shortage - what does it mean for you?


Check the Australian today, interesting article title 'Skills shortage, a danger' which emphasises that businesses are frustrated by the lack of Accountants, Metal Workers, Engineers, Business Administration Managers, Machinists, Metal casting and forging and finishing tradespeople.


What studies and qualifications could you pursue to meet this frustrated demand for labour? What might this mean for wages in these areas? How can educational institutions help meet this demand? What can the government do?

Which of these might appeal to you?

As our economy changes in the decades to come, will these areas remain in demand or is it only a short term deficit?


Saturday, May 22, 2010

Beer: non-price competition...

Do a search on the internet for articles like:
"Toohey's brands labtested for beer economy"
"Foster's tests new beer ads on line for acceptibility"
"Beer ads less about the babes and more about the beer"
...and take note of the effort given to marketing and the different companies and activities employed in helping build market recognition, loyalty and demand for their products. In Australia this industry is not considered a competitive market, due to the concentration ratio it is more like an Oligopoly - notice the features of the market evident in these articles.

Masculinity, mateship, taste, health, humour - these are just some of the things a consumer of beer thinks he (she) is buying or associating him(her)self with when drinking the substance. Each of these ads uses powerful triggers to tap into people's longings, hopes, sensitivities to lock them in as loyal consumers. Maybe do a bit of a survey of the ads and take some critical notes of what other things are being associated with the particular brands - what common themes come up, which ads do you think are most successful and why?

Monday, May 3, 2010

Taxes can really cause a stir

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2889517.htm
As we move into the annual Budget period read a little widely on taxes, beginning with this interesting view of taxes in history. Naturally when taking this kind of long historical view the Henry Tax reforms suggested earlier this week seem mild, but there is some significance amongst the suggestions: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-depth/henry-tax-review
Interpret:
Which stakeholders would be affected negatively by the suggestions? Who would benefit?
Evaluate:
Which elements of this review are a response to Australia's recent (last decade) economic performance and which take a more long term view?

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Why is Gittens so keen to call it a recession, it wasn't!?!?

Why does Ross Gittens insist we should know the recent downturn as a recession? Why was it not a recession, looking at the figures he presents could you argue that he is wrong to be so insistent? What factors does he suggest were so important in ensuring employment didn't drop as hard as it might have at another time in Australia's history?
www.smh.com.au/business/why-people-kept-jobs-in-this-recession/20100326-r34s.html - March 27 Sydney Morning Herald.

Economic Management

As Australians become increasingly aware of the immanent election, debates have begun, dates for polling discussed, the Liberal party prepares to restack its front bench, and an important budget about to be released what similarities and differences can we see if we compare our economy with England: www.economist.com/opinion/ - British Economy - 'The Pain to Come.'
See if you can create a list of similarities and differences.

Some interesting data to also consider is the budget deficits as a percentage of GDP.
Make some inferences about the relative sizes of these, what other data in this table might help understand the country's ability to repay such debts?

Sunday, March 14, 2010

what is the proper role of government?

As we consider the issue of income redistribution, read what Noel Pearson writes: www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/when-welfarism-takes-over-disaster-will-follow/story-e6frg6zo-1225824862838
What does Mr Pearson attribute as the reason for this 'social disaster'? How does this fit with the introduction from Pope Leo XIII, ie. the role of government v. the role of individuals or families? Is there something Libertarian in what he is saying?
There will be a few words in this text you'll need to look up and define.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

rates rising, RBA confident of bumper Christmas,

There is always a great deal of discussion about consumer confidence going into Christmas. It is a busy time of year for travel, tourism, retail, groceries, etc. In October businesses, government and households were holding their breath leading into this busy spending period - mostly hoping for continued low interest rates, ie. cheap money, easy money. However, the reality is that easy money is easily spent and as such the money flowing through the economy is starting to speed up again. As money speeds up, businesses need to hire more labour. As labour demand increases the RBA is moved to act, in this case rase rates early so that the economy doesn't bounce back too hard, so it raises interest rates, ie. tightening the money supply, effectively making money (borrowed money) more expensive.

There is caution because of what economies have just come through in the last year or so, note this article in response to recent interest rate rises (october): http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/rba-rate-rise-premature-says-anz-chief-mike-smith/story-e6frg90f-1225792367182
But despite the recent interest rate rises this is what we have just found out, in fact will lead to more rate rises(december): http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/fall-in-unemployment-rate-fuels-case-for-rba-to-lift-rates-in-february/story-e6frg926-1225809074692

There are a range of mechanisms for fine tuning our economy so that it doesn't grow to quickly - overheat; cause price instability; inflation - or too slowly - recession; unemployment; stagnation - quite a difficult balancing act. It is interesting stuff to learn more about, to watch the RBA in action as they attempt to create conditions which favour long run growth and price stability, it is also very interesting watching people squirm as rates move - there'll be more discussion on this. In the meantime, enjoy the bumper Christmas spend and get swept up in the event. Whilst your doing it, make sure your doing it on debit.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Thinking of buying in to the ASX?

Profit taking, high dollar acting as a break on the economy, yet our big miners continue to grow.
The news headlines in this last week are of real interest to anyone considering buying in to the ASX soon. Use the hyperlinks for each company to see the chart with recent price movements - note into your workbook the percentage rise, fall or volatility - chocolate prizes in class Wednesday!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26218546-20142,00.html

Does the news from the last few weeks give us any confidence about the timing of our current investments? Read this next blog before you come to class. Bring some summary notes so that we can discuss... http://blogs.news.com.au/news/smartinvesting/index.php/news/comments/market_timing_an_investors_game_of_chance/

Friday, October 9, 2009

What stocks were tipped as 'sure things' at the beginning of the year?

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,24846506-5013953,00.html
Why don't you start building your understanding of the Australian stock market with this article. You can see it is an attempt to summarize the best/safest options for investment this year. Take some notes identifying why each stock was recommended, do some research to find out what certain terms mean or ask me Wednesday. Finally, check out the chart for each stock and see how they've performed through the year. (you can use the charting tool supplied by The Australian - the link is in your email from Friday)

Saturday, September 26, 2009

The worst is over? Stimulus working?

http://tools.goldcoast.com.au/stories/32711621.php - the negative data continues to reveal that the GFC is far from over. Personal debt levels are still far too high, people cannot afford the debt they have accumulated to accrue the assets they aquired in recent years! So much wealth was 'created' in the last decade, but much of it created on speculative demand fueled by cheap debt - whilst the initial crisis have occured there will be continued effects for some time as many households and businesses have managed to avoid failure so far, but surviving the slowing demand conditions, potential unemployment and higher interest rates will cause more pain for lenders and borrowers in coming months and years.

This sentiment needs to be understood alongside summaries such as this http://tools.goldcoast.com.au/stories/32928221.php where the Tresury Secretary emphasises the need to continued government intervention in driving economic growth as domestic demand would otherwise have us in recession right now.

Do these two articles get you thinking about the appropriate role of government in markets and managing aggregate demand?

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Value: Why does gold continue to appreciate?


Matt Whittaker from the Australian reported through the week some insight into this important investment commodity:


Understanding: Why is gold so strong at the moment?

Interpretation: Why does Frank Lesh say that 'gold is the new international currency'?

Wider reading: Is there some history to the idea of gold as an international currency or standard?

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Signs of recovery in some of this weeks' statistics?

Why does Adam Carr suggest that the message is inconsistent? Is there a good reason for this?
http://business.smh.com.au/business/rba-optimism-grows-20090721-drfi.html
Do you think this article reads as one of pessimism, caution, or optimism?

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Time for a pay rise? Why? Why not?

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25784272-2702,00.html According to the article Why shouldn't the minimum wage rise as much as is requested? Who are the stakeholders concerned?

http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/currentaccount/index.php/theaustralian/comments/men_out_of_work/ This article focusses on a particular demographic hit by unemployment, read the posts below the article and note what some are suggesting about unemployment figures being inaccurate - describe for me why these people aren't yet measured as being unemployed.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/british-airways-saves-20m-with-voluntary-pay-cuts/2009/06/26/1245961406184.html Something quite unusual happening to employees at BA. What does the article suggest: Is this reasonable? Is it going to help the company? Could it jeopardize future wages and conditions?

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Why such a difference between what the Unions think is reasonable and what the Commission is offering?

Low-paid income will drop: Gillard
Sid Maher July 08, 2009
Article from:
The Australian
JULIA Gillard has condemned the Australian Fair Pay Commission's decision to freeze minimum wages, saying it failed to "strike the right balance" and would send low-paid workers' incomes backwards.
Employer groups and the opposition hailed the move as the necessary decision to protect jobs.
Despite the government not specifying a wage rise figure in its submission to the Fair Pay Commission's latest wage deliberations, the Acting Prime Minister said the freeze decision was "disappointing".
"We didn't nominate a figure; we suggested that the Fair Pay Commission should consider a pay rise for these workers, and we were obviously concerned that people should, at least, maintain their real wages," Ms Gillard said yesterday.
"This decision inevitably means that there will be a real wage reduction for low-income Australians."
In its final decision, the Fair Pay Commission decided to leave the federal minimum weekly wage at $543.78, or $14.31 an hour, despite unions asking for a $21-a-week increase.
Ms Gillard said changes to
the tax system and the federal government's stimulus package had provided real increases in
disposable incomes for most households.
The decision incensed unions and won immediate backing from employer groups, who said it would save jobs.
Australian Industry Group chief executive Heather Ridout said the decision was understandable given the current economic circumstances.
"The decision delivers a broader signal about wage restraint and the need for the current round of wage negotiations to take account of the continuing economic pressures on businesses and employment," Ms Ridout said.
"In making its decision, the Fair Pay Commission has taken into account that under the new Fair Work workplace relations system, wages will be reviewed in early 2010 by Fair Work Australia, with any minimum wage increase awarded operative from
1 July, 2010."
She said disposable incomes had been boosted by recent tax cuts, the indexation of family payments and the impact of the cash payments in December and March as part of the federal government's stimulus package.
The combination of tax cuts, family tax benefit increases and stimulus payments had added disposable income of more than $20 a week, or 4 per cent, to a single worker on the minimum wage.
Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry workplace policy director David Gregory said the freeze on the minimum wage was a sensible decision, given the economic environment.
"Certainly we think that it's the best outcome in that context for Australian businesses," Mr Gregory said. "It's also the best outcome for Australian employees in terms of preserving Australian jobs."
ACTU secretary Jeff Lawrence said the Fair Pay Commission was a leftover from the Howard government-era Work Choices regime and the decision was "another kick in the guts for working Australians".
He said the Fair Pay Commission had shown no respect for the contribution low-paid workers were making to the economy during the downturn and had relied on discredited research.
"The decision means ordinary working Australians and their families are bearing the brunt of an economic downturn they did not cause," Mr Lawrence said.
Opposition workplace relations spokesman Michael Keenan backed the decision, saying the most important consideration in the current economic environment was to protect jobs.
"While everyone would like to see low-paid employees get a pay rise, at the moment we need to balance those considerations with the most important thing, which is preserving jobs," he said.
What/Who is the ACCI, FPC and ACTU?
What are some of the criticisms of the lack of increase in minimum wage?
List and explain some of the problems with raising the minimum wage in the current climate.

Friday, June 12, 2009

Signs of recovery affecting Monetary Policy expectations...

Recovery signs put rate rises on agenda
Clancy YeatesJune 13, 2009
Sydney Morning Herald

MONEY markets have slashed the odds of further cuts to official interest rates after a string of indicators showing the economy and global conditions are holding up better than expected.
There is now only a one in four chance of a further 0.25 percentage point cut in rates later this year, as implied by market prices, whereas in March they were factoring in a cut of up to 0.50 percentage points from the current level of 3 per cent.
Moreover, futures markets are also tentatively pricing in rises in interest rates from early next year, though the outcome is difficult to predict at the moment.
Analysts say the change in sentiment is a response to persistent "green shoots" in global markets and the surprisingly resilient state of the domestic economy.
In the latest sign of global improvement, China again beat economists' expectations by notching up growth of 15.2 per cent in its retail sector last month, and further strength in industrial production.
The chief interest strategist at Deutsche Bank, David Plank, said the main reason for the changes in interest rate expectations was the improvement in international conditions.
"It's not that the global economy's in good shape, but it's not as bad as it looks," he said.
In another promising sign for world growth, crude oil traded near a seven-month high of $US72 a barrel after the International Energy Agency raised its outlook for oil consumption for the first time since August.
On the domestic front, Mr Plank said a more buoyant mood in markets was also lowering the odds that the Reserve Bank would provide further stimulus with cuts to lending rates.
This lift in investor confidence has also boosted the ASX 200 index to 4062.2 points, its highest close since November.
"We've seen more than a 30 per cent rally in equity markets, and credit spreads have come in sharply," Mr Plank said.
Yet despite the newfound optimism in credit markets, the Commonwealth Bank yesterday raised its main standard variable mortgage rate by 10 basis points, citing higher credit costs.
The chief economist at Nomura, Stephen Roberts, said the lower expectations of interest rate cuts also reflected a rise in key commodities used in industrial production, such as copper, which reached an eight-month high yesterday. And once again China is seen as the driving force behind the rise.
Yesterday's figures also said China's industrial production expanded at an 8.9 per cent annual rate, with car production almost double to 35 per cent last month, compared with 17.3 per cent previously.
"It's the latest piece of evidence that China, of all the economies in the world, is going to have a U-shaped recovery," Mr Roberts said.
Markets overseas are also pricing in an interest rate rise before the end of the year in the US, where official rates are in effect zero. Markets in New Zealand and Canada are predicting higher interest rates from early next year.
Despite the market optimism, the Reserve Bank said last week that "scope remains for some further easing of monetary policy".
See if you can locate some of these 'string of indicators' which are leading market confidence which has this journalist commenting... find them, share them in your comment and interpret them if you can.

Saturday, June 6, 2009

Downturn, but not quite a recession...


Self-serve stimulus packages
David Dale
June 6, 2009 Sydney Morning Herald

NOW is the winter of our mass content. Undeterred by recession and swine flu, Australians are rushing to stimulate themselves in every conceivable way - at the cinema, on disc, via the handsets of their games machines and earphones of their music players, on the box, on the computer and even via that most ancient medium, ink on paper.
Malcolm Turnbull may yell, "Stop laughing, this is serious," but we're not listening. Over the past six weeks, more than a million people bought tickets to see each of these movies: Angels And Demons, Star Trek, Wolverine, Monsters Vs Aliens, Fast And Furious and Night At The Museum 2. On DVD, we bought more than 100,000 copies of Twilight, Australia and Slumdog Millionaire.
On TV, 2 million people a week watch Thank God You're Here, Talkin' 'Bout Your Generation, Masterchef and (when there's no competing footy) Spicks And Specks and The Chaser's War On Everything. On our gameboxes we play Pokemon Platinum, UFC 2009 Undisputed, WiiFit, EA Sports Active and GH Metallica.
And we spend more than $40 million a month on recordings. The music industry was supposed to be bankrupt by now but it has morphed. Nobody buys singles in physical form but this year we've downloaded thousands of digital versions of Pokerface by Lady Gaga, So What by Pink, Sex On Fire by Kings of Leon, Single Ladies by Beyonce and Love Story by Taylor Swift.
The old-fashioned album is thriving. The Australian Record Industry Association announced last month that I'm Not Dead by Pink had gone "10 platinum" (where "one platinum" means 70,000 copies distributed by the record company).
These albums also sold more than half a million copies this decade: Innocent Eyes, Delta Goodrem; 1, the Beatles; The Sound Of White, Missy Higgins; Come Away With Me, Nora Jones; Only By The Night, Kings of Leon; Funhouse, Pink; Back To Bedlam, James Blunt; Get Born, Jet; The Eminem Show, Eminem; and Odyssey Number 5, Powderfinger.
In addition, music DVDs are booming. Each of these sold more than 150,000 copies since 2003: Live In Australia, Andre Rieu; Hell Freezes Over, the Eagles; Delta, Delta Goodrem; What We Did Last Summer, Robbie Williams; Live From Wembley Arena, Pink; Number Ones, Michael Jackson; and Pulse, Pink Floyd. You may question Australia's taste but you can't doubt its eagerness to spend on musical experiences.
Another entertainment industry that was supposed to be terminally ill, newspaper publishing, is enjoying the revelation that its death throes are so slow as to be unnoticeable. The latest report of the Audit Bureau of Circulations shows that over the 12 months to March, the sales of daily and weekly newspapers in this country declined by a massive 1 per cent. That puts Australia out of step with Britain and America, where newspaper circulations this decade have been dropping by 6 per cent a year and publishers are in a panic to find a financial model that works online. Every weekday, 2.2 million Australians buy a printed newspaper. On Saturdays, 3 million buy a paper. On Sundays, 3.3 million buy a paper.
Dying? That doesn't even look like a mild case of flu.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

what does ageing mean for us?



Over the coming years you will notice more and more policies designed specifically to reduce the massive costs of an ageing population. Rising Government debt will further exacerbate the issue which can only lead to higher taxes and/or a reduction in services. Start saving now, you'll need it.

Friday, May 22, 2009

Investing now...?

How soon will the Australian economy recover, still much speculation: http://business.smh.com.au/business/budget-optimists-are-guessing-too-20090522-biaz.html
Divided opinion, but even the best signs are far from bullish: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25524015-643,00.html

Share markets have shown some recovery in last few months, but stories of business failures remain a relevant consideration: http://business.smh.com.au/business/collapse-a-cautionary-tale-for-ad-industry-20090522-biar.html
Yet, in the same paper you can read about other business successes: http://business.smh.com.au/business/amatil-pops-the-cork-on-latest-growth-figures-20090522-biax.html
Some of you were interested in our big minin firms as a possible investment, yet RIO's prices have taken a battering: http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/rio-takes-borates-business-off-market-20090523-biiu.html

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Appropriate spending?

The Federal Budget brought about some interesting discussion on Fiscal policy and estimates regarding how soon Australia might be back to trend growth.

What were your reactions to the budget? What did your parents have to say?

read budget here: http://www.budget.gov.au/2009-10/content/speech/html/speech.htm and follow links through the site to read more.

Monday, May 11, 2009

Budget week

Much media attention will be directed to analysis and presentation of the Federal Budget this week. A very helpful start in easy to understand language will be found at http://www.sbs.com.au/news/specialcoverage/46/Budget-2009#

We'll have daily copies of the Australian and Courier Mail in the library and my office, but wider reading should also be occuring - try discussing the implications on your family with your parents.