Sunday, April 5, 2009

DRQ: Soaring price of Gold...



People are literally trying to find more gold as its price keeps rising. Analyse why Demand for Gold continues to rise in-light of economic uncertainty and risks of inflation. You might also explain some of the history of the commodity as a standard for valuing currency, etc.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Bear talk - time to restructure....

http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/
Watch Alan Kohler's interview with Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley. Some interesting insight into where the market is due to correct further after excessive growth and activity.
List the different bubbles Stephen talks about. Why is 'carnage' expected? What's out of balance? What bubble exists in Australia which may still have further to deflate?
What restructuring needs to occur in the Chinese economy, how different is this to USA?
What is he worried about? From Demand and Supply side?
What is missing in Australia's economic plan?
How have central banks been negligent in relation to asset bubbles?
What figures from the Depression are put forward as being far in excess of anything we will experience in our future?

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Why higher oil prices haven't cut demand...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6249750%20
Msnbc - american media source - wide range of links and data regarding the future of oil, prices and alternative fuels.

http://www.accc.gov.au/content/index.phtml/itemId/793605
price of oil is Singapore markets, direct effect upon bowser prices for fuel in Australia.
http://www.accc.gov.au/content/index.phtml/itemId/790921
follow the ACCC's investigation of fuel pricing in Australia...
http://www.accc.gov.au/content/item.phtml?itemId=300941&nodeId=ed87dd1de7d0b91f4b4b06d2b40f875e&fn=Caltex Australia.pdf
see Caltex's response.

Positive data? Confidence in Aussie share market?

Australian sharemarket forecast to rise, dollar gains 3pc
Allison Jackson March 19, 2009
Article from:
The Australian
THE Australian dollar surged and shares are expected to open higher after the US Federal Reserve's decision to buy government bonds.The Aussie surged 2.8 per cent to US67.98 cents, the highest level in more than five weeks, from yesterday’s close of US66.13c. The June share price index futures contract rose 30 points to 3508, pointing to the possibility of a 0.9 per cent rise in the S&P/ASX 200. Australian three-year government bond futures also soared on the back of the announcement, rising 21 points to 96.99 for an implied yield of 3.01 per cent. The Fed said it would buy up to $US300 billion ($443 billion) in longer-term government bonds as well as spend an additional $US750 billion mopping up mortgage-back securities, in order to reduce rates for business and consumer loans and stimulate spending in the economy. The plan pushed Wall Street higher. The Dow rose 90.88 points (1.23 per cent) to 7486.58, its highest close in a month. The S&P 500 added 16.23 points (2.09 per cent) to 794.35, after ticking above the psychologically significant 800-level during the session for the first time since February 17. The technology-oriented Nasdaq Composite rose 29.11 points (1.99 per cent) to 1491.22, helped by a reported IBM bid to buy Nasdaq component Sun Microsystems.
Practise responding to this article a little like you would a DRQ question:
1.Define the terms Bond, futures, Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq, index, confidence.
2.Draw an appropriate diagram to help show what is happening to one of these markets and why.
3.Use your knowledge and evidence from the article to explain the effect of news like this on the Australian share market.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Media criticism of fuel watch...

http://www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au/flash/flash.php?id=381
Have a look through Nicholson's cartoons to see some of the criticism of the political response to fuel prices over the last year or so...
http://www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au/cartoon_6071.html

Begin your inquiry: What issues petrol prices?

Here the ACCC provides information regarding the 'price cycles' of fuel in major cities. This gives both suppliers and consumers more information about pricing - does this fact contribute to more competitive markets? There is other information which is very useful regarding the 'determinants of price in this market:
http://www.accc.gov.au/content/index.phtml/itemId/280309
Fuelwatch was an initiative in Western Australia to reduce producer sovereignty and potential for pricing strategies which were unfair for consumers. You can learn a great deal through this little resource:
http://www.fuelwatch.wa.gov.au/info/dsp_petrol_prices.cfm
Our economy may be slowing, but there is still inflationary pressure. This article discusses some recent figures and the affect of an increasing fuel price:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/02/2504819.htm
OPEC will continue to play with Supply to affect the price of oil and ofcourse petrol, notice the expectations of a reduction in supply in response to lower prices in Singapore:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25166480-12377,00.html
Here's an interesting discussion about good politics and bad economics relating to fuel prices: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23765241-5013868,00.html

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Fiscal stimulus - changing who holds the debt and when it is repayed?

In this article Ross Gittens of SMH anticipates that Australians will save most of the upcoming Fiscal Stimulus to pay off oversized debts:
http://business.smh.com.au/business/its-a-hangover-take-the-medicine-20090310-8u58.html
Is the Government anticipating this, or that our propensity to consume is high enough to keep the economy growing and keep up spending? Gittens title suggests that, whatever we do with the initial hand out, it is still the medicine which will ultimately contribute to lessening the 'hangover.' But, continuing the metaphor, what if many Australian's didn't 'get drunk' - having borrowed cautiously, saved prudently and spent wisely through this last boom anticpating a down turn in the market. These people don't need medicine - which itself will have side effects: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25175184-601,00.html
Here Peter Costello is reported to have warned the Australian public that Government spending now is financed by debt and itself will require repayment and interst payments later on - suggesting it may not be the most prudent policy decision.