Saturday, March 27, 2010

Why is Gittens so keen to call it a recession, it wasn't!?!?

Why does Ross Gittens insist we should know the recent downturn as a recession? Why was it not a recession, looking at the figures he presents could you argue that he is wrong to be so insistent? What factors does he suggest were so important in ensuring employment didn't drop as hard as it might have at another time in Australia's history?
www.smh.com.au/business/why-people-kept-jobs-in-this-recession/20100326-r34s.html - March 27 Sydney Morning Herald.

Economic Management

As Australians become increasingly aware of the immanent election, debates have begun, dates for polling discussed, the Liberal party prepares to restack its front bench, and an important budget about to be released what similarities and differences can we see if we compare our economy with England: www.economist.com/opinion/ - British Economy - 'The Pain to Come.'
See if you can create a list of similarities and differences.

Some interesting data to also consider is the budget deficits as a percentage of GDP.
Make some inferences about the relative sizes of these, what other data in this table might help understand the country's ability to repay such debts?

Sunday, March 14, 2010

what is the proper role of government?

As we consider the issue of income redistribution, read what Noel Pearson writes: www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/when-welfarism-takes-over-disaster-will-follow/story-e6frg6zo-1225824862838
What does Mr Pearson attribute as the reason for this 'social disaster'? How does this fit with the introduction from Pope Leo XIII, ie. the role of government v. the role of individuals or families? Is there something Libertarian in what he is saying?
There will be a few words in this text you'll need to look up and define.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

rates rising, RBA confident of bumper Christmas,

There is always a great deal of discussion about consumer confidence going into Christmas. It is a busy time of year for travel, tourism, retail, groceries, etc. In October businesses, government and households were holding their breath leading into this busy spending period - mostly hoping for continued low interest rates, ie. cheap money, easy money. However, the reality is that easy money is easily spent and as such the money flowing through the economy is starting to speed up again. As money speeds up, businesses need to hire more labour. As labour demand increases the RBA is moved to act, in this case rase rates early so that the economy doesn't bounce back too hard, so it raises interest rates, ie. tightening the money supply, effectively making money (borrowed money) more expensive.

There is caution because of what economies have just come through in the last year or so, note this article in response to recent interest rate rises (october): http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/rba-rate-rise-premature-says-anz-chief-mike-smith/story-e6frg90f-1225792367182
But despite the recent interest rate rises this is what we have just found out, in fact will lead to more rate rises(december): http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/fall-in-unemployment-rate-fuels-case-for-rba-to-lift-rates-in-february/story-e6frg926-1225809074692

There are a range of mechanisms for fine tuning our economy so that it doesn't grow to quickly - overheat; cause price instability; inflation - or too slowly - recession; unemployment; stagnation - quite a difficult balancing act. It is interesting stuff to learn more about, to watch the RBA in action as they attempt to create conditions which favour long run growth and price stability, it is also very interesting watching people squirm as rates move - there'll be more discussion on this. In the meantime, enjoy the bumper Christmas spend and get swept up in the event. Whilst your doing it, make sure your doing it on debit.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Thinking of buying in to the ASX?

Profit taking, high dollar acting as a break on the economy, yet our big miners continue to grow.
The news headlines in this last week are of real interest to anyone considering buying in to the ASX soon. Use the hyperlinks for each company to see the chart with recent price movements - note into your workbook the percentage rise, fall or volatility - chocolate prizes in class Wednesday!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26218546-20142,00.html

Does the news from the last few weeks give us any confidence about the timing of our current investments? Read this next blog before you come to class. Bring some summary notes so that we can discuss... http://blogs.news.com.au/news/smartinvesting/index.php/news/comments/market_timing_an_investors_game_of_chance/

Friday, October 9, 2009

What stocks were tipped as 'sure things' at the beginning of the year?

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,24846506-5013953,00.html
Why don't you start building your understanding of the Australian stock market with this article. You can see it is an attempt to summarize the best/safest options for investment this year. Take some notes identifying why each stock was recommended, do some research to find out what certain terms mean or ask me Wednesday. Finally, check out the chart for each stock and see how they've performed through the year. (you can use the charting tool supplied by The Australian - the link is in your email from Friday)

Saturday, September 26, 2009

The worst is over? Stimulus working?

http://tools.goldcoast.com.au/stories/32711621.php - the negative data continues to reveal that the GFC is far from over. Personal debt levels are still far too high, people cannot afford the debt they have accumulated to accrue the assets they aquired in recent years! So much wealth was 'created' in the last decade, but much of it created on speculative demand fueled by cheap debt - whilst the initial crisis have occured there will be continued effects for some time as many households and businesses have managed to avoid failure so far, but surviving the slowing demand conditions, potential unemployment and higher interest rates will cause more pain for lenders and borrowers in coming months and years.

This sentiment needs to be understood alongside summaries such as this http://tools.goldcoast.com.au/stories/32928221.php where the Tresury Secretary emphasises the need to continued government intervention in driving economic growth as domestic demand would otherwise have us in recession right now.

Do these two articles get you thinking about the appropriate role of government in markets and managing aggregate demand?